Prediction Case File
ISRGstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-08-23T19:05:30long_termfundamental
Live Outcome
-20.76%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
476.17001343
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
372
Predicted objective
Invalidation
575
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
475.16
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
21.88%
Initial Invalidation Distance
20.76%
Risk / Reward
1.05
Timeframe
Long Term
Live Position
-20.76%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

80%
Principal
80%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal80.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable80.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-23T19:05:30
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-11-10T20:30:00
Resolved At
2025-11-10T20:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-11-10T20:30:00
Max High
477.86499023
Max High At
-
Min Low
427.83599854
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
1,897.4h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
5P06o4cWrSg
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The video provides a fundamental analysis of UPS, Union Pacific (UNP), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). UPS is down 45% over the last five years and while the CEO bought $1 million worth of stock at around $85.67 and a director bought $432.48k shares around the same price the company is structurally declining, with market share halved since 2014, so a target of $80 is given. The discussion of UNP indicates that it is close to its 52 week low trading at $224 and that 26% of Ferromex (Mexican railroad) is owned by UNP, he aims for the company to trade at $180 a share. For ISRG, the video mentions Chinese competition impacting earnings and while has recurring revenue. The stock is targeting a $372 price range.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an analysis on UPS stock, UNP stock and ISRG stock. MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient 0:00 1st Stock 5:53 2nd stock 9:51 3rd stock

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal