Prediction Case File
FICOstockbearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

The Patient Investor2025-08-02T15:34:50long_termfundamental
Live Outcome
-1.22%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
1,383.11999512
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
1,147
Predicted objective
Invalidation
1,400
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
1,381.07
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
17.07%
Initial Invalidation Distance
1.22%
Risk / Reward
13.99
Timeframe
Long Term
Live Position
-1.22%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

40%
Principal
100%
Actionable
80%
Overall
Principal40.00%
Comprehensible100.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable100.00%
Derived Quality80.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-02T15:34:50
First Checked
-
Last Checked
-
Resolved
2025-08-04T13:30:00
Resolved At
2025-08-04T13:30:00
Resolved Candle
2025-08-04T13:30:00
Max High
1,401.86999512
Max High At
-
Min Low
1,362.23999023
Min Low At
-
Time To Result
45.92h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

The Patient Investor
YouTube · @thepatientinvestorr
Reliability
46.94
Success Rate
33.49%
Consistency
82.73
Risk Adjusted
-7.99
Avg Return
-1.07%
Avg Quality
3.5
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
VCxhiXm2JMM
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst discusses three stocks near their 52-week lows: FICO, Chipotle, and Otis. The analyst notes that FICO is down 30% year-to-date despite good financial performance, mentioning rising revenues, bookings, earnings per share, and EBITDA. The stock's valuation is analyzed using estimates for earnings per share growth, set at 21% for 2026 and 24% for 2027 and then the analyst sets the growth to 20% for the subsequent years, stating $1147 as a good buy target. The video reviews Chipotle noting its financial decline in coop sales that has been dropping, and suggest wait for the $33 price point to consider a potential investment. Finally, a negative perspective is given to Otis Worldwide due to issues with China but positive in general the recommendation here is for $60 to be considered.

Original Caption

Friends! In this video, I'm going to do an analysis on Fico Stock & 2 other quality stocks MY PORTFOLIO & DISCORD: https://www.patreon.com/patientinvestor MY TWITTER: https://twitter.com/patientinvestt FREE ACCESS To Fiscal.AI https://fiscal.ai/?via=Patient 0:00 1st Stock 6:22 2nd stock 10:46 3rd stock

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal