Prediction Case File
BTC.DcryptobearishVerified Fail

Structured market prediction extracted from social analysis, normalized by AI, enriched with validation metrics, analyst reliability, live position tracking and source-level evidence.

Aaron Bennett2025-08-25T03:17:28dailytechnical
Live Outcome
-10.52%
Performance since published
Fail
Publish Price
55.58243429
Entry captured near publish time
Current Price
-
Latest tracked market price
Target Price
54.5
Predicted objective
Invalidation
61.43
Risk boundary
Prediction Structure

Entry, target and invalidation logic

The original analyst prediction is converted into a structured intelligence object with price mentions, normalized direction, target distance, invalidation distance and risk/reward context.

Price Mentioned by AI
57.93
Original Analyst Trend
Bearish
AI-Detected Price Direction
Bearish
Normalized Market Direction
Bearish
Initial Target Distance
1.95%
Initial Invalidation Distance
10.52%
Risk / Reward
0.19
Timeframe
Daily
Live Position
-10.52%
Live
Current Price
-
Live Score
-
Distance to Target Now
-
Distance to Invalidation Now
-
Price Structure Valid
No
Warning
-
Quality Breakdown

AI quality scoring

Each signal is scored for clarity, accuracy, actionability and overall usefulness before it contributes to intelligence metrics.

60%
Principal
60%
Actionable
60%
Overall
Principal60.00%
Comprehensible80.00%
Accurate80.00%
Actionable60.00%
Derived Quality68.00%
Validation & Result

What happened after publication?

The platform tracks price movement after publication and records outcome, runup, drawdown and resolution metadata.

Published
2025-08-25T03:17:28
First Checked
2026-05-19T01:03:30
Last Checked
2026-05-19T01:03:30
Resolved
2026-05-19T01:03:30
Resolved At
2026-05-19T01:03:30
Resolved Candle
2026-01-23T02:00:00
Max High
63.99340531
Max High At
2026-01-23T02:00:00
Min Low
55.37899719
Min Low At
2025-09-13T10:00:00
Time To Result
6,405.77h
Result
Fail
Validation Status
Resolved
Analyst Intelligence

Who generated this prediction?

Aaron Bennett
YouTube · @abennett
Reliability
52.88
Success Rate
42.29%
Consistency
89.03
Risk Adjusted
-11.26
Avg Return
-2.73%
Avg Quality
3.28
Original Social Post

Source, summary and reference

Platform
YouTube
Media Type
youtube_video
Language
-
Gemini Model
-
Processed At
-
External Post ID
hzYX1s_6nGM
Open Original Post →
AI Summary

The analyst discusses a Bitcoin crash due to a whale selling 24,000 BTC, causing a $4,000 crash in minutes. BTC dropped from $114,000 to $110,000 in 15 minutes. Ethereum almost hit $5,000 but dropped to $4,700. Bitcoin dominance has been declining for two months and has reached 57%. The analyst suggests this often precedes an altcoin rally. Last year, Bitcoin dominance dropped 11% which led to an XRP rally. He suggests having a position in altcoins and Ethereum before a strong altcoin season begins. He mentions that historical data suggests September is a down month for Bitcoin, followed by rallies in October, November, and December. The analyst also mentions the importance of being aware of liquidation levels and avoiding heavy leverage.

Original Caption

Whale selling on a Sunday. BTCC Exchange – 10% Deposit Bonus + 40% Off Fees https://aaronbtc.com/btcc Into The Cryptoverse Charts – 10% Off https://intothecryptoverse.com/r/aaron.bennett Coupon: aaron.bennett iTrust Capital – $100 Bonus (Crypto IRA) https://www.itrustcapital.com/aaronbennett Gemini Credit Card https://aaronbtc.com/gemini-card Gemini Exchange – $75 Sign Up Bonus https://aaronbtc.com/gemini75 ⸻ Join the Community https://www.patreon.com/c/aaronbennettcrypto ⸻ Exchanges I Use ️ Coinbase: https://aaronbtc.com/Coinbase30 ️ Gemini: https://aaronbtc.com/gemini75 ️ Kraken: https://aaronbtc.com/kraken-2025 ⸻ Hardware Wallets (Self-Custody) ️ Tangem: https://aaronbtc.com/tangem ️ Ledger: https://aaronbtc.com/ledger ️ Trezor: https://aaronbtc.com/trezor ⸻ Verify Me on Socials Twitter/X: https://x.com/AaronDBennett Telegram: https://t.me/aaronbennett11 Email: bitcoinaaron@proton.me Instagram: https://instagram.com/bitcoinaaron ⸻ Legal & Risk Disclosure 1️⃣ Not Financial Advice – I am not a licensed advisor. Always DYOR. 2️⃣ Affiliate Links – Some links are sponsored/affiliate. No extra cost to you. 3️⃣ Crypto Risk – Highly volatile. You can lose money. 4️⃣ Jurisdiction – Check your local laws before investing. 5️⃣ Accuracy – Content = personal opinion at recording time. No guarantees.

Signal Metadata

Scoring and consensus eligibility

These fields explain whether this prediction is already verified, whether it contributes to analyst scoring, and whether it is included in symbol target consensus.

Forward-Looking Signal
No
Verified Outcome
Yes
Included in Analyst Score
Yes
Included in Target Consensus
No
Public Listing Status
Listed
Status Explanation
-
Why Not Included in Score Yet
-
Target Consensus Exclusion
Not Forward Signal
BTC.D Bearish Signal by Aaron Bennett | Tahlil Plus AI